Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Individual Stock Selection Trend Trades and Investments

For trend trades and indivudal investments I want a sector theme that makes sense with my understanding of risk and an industry that makes sense as well. So I will look through the sector "basic materials" and look for industries within it that have done well. These are likely the "leading industries" as we are anticipating a rotation. However, it is important to understand that often times those that peaked first and have performed the worst will eventually lead and often times really early in the rotation.

In this case, "chemicals" are vaguely in the materials sector and have performed the best.
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_specialtychemicals
http://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/-CHES?f=ind
And I look on a weekly chart this time
http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=ind_specialtychemicals&ta=0&p=w&o=-marketcap

I see an established trend by many names. I believe a lot of the momentum names have had their runs as well. But If I am right about the rotation into the space, I want laggards on a weekly basis. These are ones that should be near support and more of a sideways trend than vertical. I also want medium risk names so not the lowest beta and highest market cap. This isn't an exact science here and involves more of an "art" in assessing risk tolerance of the masses, so I may also be interested in looking at more severe laggards (those in more of a downtrend to sideways trend) and "potential short squeezes" . Technical analysis still matters but it's much different when you are anticipatory and trying to pick a bottom. If you pick a bottom you are looking for a consolidation and accepting of price. The only "severe laggard" I really like is HWKN. There are plenty of other what I would consider "laggards" because they are near a trendline and showing a temporary pause in an uptrend and near support. But I would lean towards the earlier stages of the rotation as a sector, even if specialty chemicals are really more likely to be among the early stages of the rotation and thus that particular industry may be in it's mid stages.

SHW,SXT,KRO,HWKN. If I choose one of those names I may keep an eye on some of the higher risk short squeezes and high risk small and micro cap stocks.

I will also glance at the monthly chart. If I am willing to do some more due diligence into the fundamentals of the company, I really love the looks of HWKN and KRO on the monthly chart. I would really have to determine whether or not I think Specialty chemicals as an industry could be likely to pan out for a significant length of time as well.

Also keep in mind that this type of analysis applies to all different ways to slice up a market. For example, you might identify that Technology is ready, specifically search engines are ready for some quality and momentum names while simultaneously China is looking like it is receiving a rotation of capital and ready to rotate into quality and momentum. BIDU at that point may be the best of all worlds and could possibly receive multiple inflows of capital. Your odds go way up that Bidu will be the recipiant of one of those flows of capital and if it is all it could skyrocket quickly.

So, now you know a methodology towards selecting individual stocks while being mindful of the big picture, the next step is knowing how to properly manage a trade and analyze risks/rewards.

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