Friday, February 24, 2017

Full Blown Bull Market Not Yet Here?

One thing that dow theorists used to propose is that it isn't a bull market until all major indices are making new highs. However, due to the US coming off the gold standard in the 70s and the way currency exchanges and the increased global investing that is being done that may not be enough. One thing Martin Armstrong once said that always stuck with me is it's not a full blown bull market until its leading relative to all currencies. That works for different asset classes and in this case the Russel is only just about to approach new highs relative to the dollar index.

The last time that we were in a "full blown bull market" by this metric was in mid 2013 to 2014.
We can also look and see emerging markets aren't ready and that the all world index is not ready to take out its highs. This suggests a concentration into US stocks until proven otherwise.
The Russel is and all world index is pushing against resistance so it is possible we will stall here, but if/when we make it through to highs it is an all clear buying signal until it retraces the candle that takes out the high and fails its breakout (failed move and 2b sell signal) or until it creates another topping pattern after completing its rally.

For the record, Martin Armstrong has also suggested that the public average Joe investor won't as a group begin to pour into the market until if/when we get above 23000 and if that happens lookout we are headed towards a parabolic move or what he calls a "phase transition".

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