Friday, June 28, 2013

Only Busy Work Remains

I have determined in detail how exactly I will complete the spreadsheet to where I want it to be. The spreadsheet will allow me to determine my expected return given a bet size after adjusting for fees, varience, volatility, multiple possible outcomes, based upon the bet size. It also will tell me the probability after X trades of having a given return. Now it just comes down to busy work

1)Changing the formulas
2)Setting up inputs (account size fees per total trade, fees per contract, contract size, etc)
3)Formulas to modify the win ratio based upon the inputs adjusted for bet size with F% (1 bet at a time)
4)Setting up the win rate with the corresponding risk adjusted for bet size for multiple bets at a time
5)setting up the formulas to determing the expected long term growth rate and other details based upon this information
6)Allowing for a multiplier to increase Fees according to risk of variance. THEN the second part will be
7)setting up macros to input 5 trades of 5 possible outcomes
8)repeating the macros 3 times
9)insert 2 rows and use a find and replace tools to pull each of the numbers in one of the rows
10)Setting the win ratio to pull from the other sheet and go into 1 of these rows
11)Copying and pasting the efforts over side by side to all the other numbers
12)putting the Probabilities of the win ratio occuring so that they pull in one of the rows
13)Setting up ONE of the other two tabs with data that will pull from the results of the first spreadsheet in the other row
14)Setting up the second of the other two tabs to pull from the results in the 2nd spreadsheet also displayed in ITs other row.
15)collecting the data from the final spreadsheet to pull to a "cover sheet" that will summarize basically all I am trying to learn and get out of the kelly criterion spreadsheet.

So... I know what to do. I have done this kind of thing before in a similar manner for a different purpose. Now it is just a TON of busy work and motivation required. I plan to work on this over the summer. Once I have an idea of how minimal of capital I can be profitable with I want to start multiple accounts, each to trade a different method, so I can develop more exact numbers based upon the actual EXECUTION of the strategies, rather than looking at someone else's results that I may shadow (and occasionally be late to the punch) or looking at the results of a particular candlestick pattern which I also may occasionally miss the ideal entry. By keeping the "trade history" separate for each account, I will better be able to track the results and from there anticipate gains. THEN I can consolidate the accounts into the one with the best strategy going forward Hopefully I will have this done before October as that will be a great month to get started in due to the history of it being a great historical time to buy until May with.

The separate accounts also will allow me to attempt a "challenge" of starting with much less capital and helping people who are low funded by showing them how it's possible if you adhere to the "indisputable mathematical laws of statistics and money management".

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