Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Timeframe for 2009-2016 Sector Rotation

There is about 7 years to a cycle from the low to the top. Sometimes shorter, sometimes longer.
I believe we are looking at 2009 low to a late 2015-early 2016 high. It's possible that we just go on a secular run that extends into 2020. Being that I think we have a very high target that may be likely, but I also think we could see the type of "parabolic run" that we saw in the dow from 1927-1929 or the nasdaq from 1997-2000 or in the Nikkei. That could still get us to the price target and align  with the cycle and Martin Armstrong's economic confidence model. Based upon how we are going, I think things are setting up for that.

Based upon this and an "even" timeframe between rotations, and this cycle chart we can translate the rotation into "time" as a guideline.
I came up with timeframes using the Financials as the bottom. I went with "strong dollar scenario" because that is what I think we see. I could be wrong, but if so the time frame is still very similar.

3/15/2009    Financials
12/5/2009    Cyclicals
8/28/2010    Transportation
5/20/2011    Tech
2/10/2012    Services
11/2/2012    Capital Goods
7/26/2013    Industrials
4/18/2014    Materials
1/9/2015    Energy
10/1/2015    Gold

Now you might want to round to the nearest seasonal point. Since we are in 2013
The only thing relevant right now is
7/26/2013    Industrials (if you aren't in, look for a buy in late September, early October)
4/18/2014    Materials (Probably want to get in January 2014)
1/9/2015    Energy  (This date aligns very closely with seasonals )
10/1/2015    Gold (Could wait until say October 20th or so)

http://charts.equityclock.com/gold-futures-gc-seasonal-chart
http://charts.equityclock.com/silver-futures-si-seasonal-chart
I will not try to assess when the cycle will end what happens, but I suspect a typical 2-3 yr bear market which takes us into around 2018.

I would also consider using a comparison chart of all sectors to pinpoint what has happened and verify that this picture is relatively on track and perhaps pinpoint the beginning of a rotation. The sector rotation also provides a broad long term context, the seasonals provide a guideline for entry during that "context" and the technicals can help you pin point a more ideal buy point.

Then you can use individual fundamentals and technicals to decide what specifically to buy, or else just look at an ETF. If you are using an ETF, I believe you have an advantage in "rebalancing" since you can use that strategy to add lower, and effectively even change allocations to increase exposure slightly as you go lower. I would never do that with individual stocks, however, I may ADD a position or take a position off if I had a basket of a few in that sector, particularly if I made option plays. There are always multiple "fundamentals" and "technicals", so you gotta find what works for you.

You may not follow this "just because", but should perhaps tend to lean towards decisions that align with this. So perhaps you really don't like Industrials, so you just stay away or avoid going short, or if you have a slight dislike for them, have a much smaller position.

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