Friday, October 31, 2014

Did the Market just fake out everyone?

The market initially had the look that it was failing at resistance. It sold off sharply and screams that the top was in were showing up. Even I pointed out in the post "it's a trap!" that there was possibly a topping process setting up, but at a minimum the market was getting ready to trap someone. It appears for now the optimist was right.
There clearly appeared to be a topping pattern in place after what seemed like large gains from the low. But just then the buying pressure continued on and we now may get a monthly close ABOVE resistance for arguably the first time depending on how generous you are, or at least get the 2nd bullish close above resistance. We also failed to get a close below the steeper angled upward trend channel and prices rejected such an attempt. Even the monthly parabolic SAR hit stops before rejecting lower prices and rocketing higher as stops for many were taken out. The move from the recent low on a daily chart has been both awesome and horrifying. Even though we declined sharply the rebound has been even more steep and dramatic ensuring to trap every short, take out every stop and get the average joe to miss out yet again. Meanwhile the average Joe's asset of choice is gold and the panic in gold may be just getting started only AFTER everyone owning gold missed out on the chance to convert their gold to cash and then stock. The average JOE has not capitulated in gold yet, and they are still terrified of getting back in the market, so at best they will chase the rally higher later on... only after having missed out.
Of course, the possibility this break out fails still exists. If one believes that this is a breakout, he/she better have a plan to capitalize off of it in a way that offers an asymmetric return. Possibly waiting for a monthly closing below the overhead resistance which now becomes support before selling, and letting the winner ride to at least the upper end of the shallow trend channel before selling.

This type of action was seen only a few times before. There are at least 2 good analogs for how prices behaved. 1998 and 1996. Each were incredibly bullish. 1927 saw a similar pattern where it broke prior trend, it rejected, and rocketed through to new highs. But the idea is it set up a low, it took out a low and rejected it sharply while leaving long candles below also showing a sharp rejection.

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