Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Optomist vs Pessamist

Optimist

Pessimist


 The optomist views every recent low as support, the pessamist views every recent high at resistance and from which trend channels can be drawn parallel to those levels. The extreme pessamist may even suggest such extreme selling as the 2009 low as support even though it has no other reference points if it is parallel to resistance but that gives you a pretty wide range.
In the optimist view, if we don't reverse soon there will be re evaluation. In the pessimist's view even if we do reverse to the upside the upside still remains minimal relative to the downside despite the fact that the trend is still upwards until proven otherwise. The problem with both accounts is the optimist will draw new trendlines if we breach support where the pessimist will be in cash or short and could remain that way even as the markets continue to progress upwards near support for a very long time until the "support" is higher than current prices. You have to learn to evaluate both viewpoints and see the upside and the downside of each and come to some sort of consensus and gameplan to respect the overall risk and reward. You certainly could choose either viewpoint during points like right now when there is low risk entry. Right now being an optimist offers a low risk entry, provided you don't remain that way after support is breached.

Ford as an investment has great long term support around here and trendline support around $13 and horizontal price history offers support around here as well. If it does not hold, I would wait until around $10 to consider adding more.

Many energy names also look good.

No comments:

Post a Comment