Building A System With Multiple Tailwinds

Investing or trading is about putting the odds in your favor, and avoiding beting as much when they are against you. I am going to go over a strategy that I have begun to develop over time.
1)Identify the point in the business cycle and what sectors are great to start with.
2)repeat with seasonal data.
3)Evaluate sectors to find which ones are cheap and growing
4)Try to find the areas that are set-up nicely for all of the above.
5)Check fundamentals of companies in those sectors/industries.
6)Check the individual seasonal data of the individual companies. (not all of them will have data).
7)Identify the best opportunities
8)Add them to watchlist and look for technical setup you like such as buying at support, or candlestick break upwards or oversold or whatever
9)manage risk.


1)Analyze the Business cycle. As of this post, the interest rates should be rising soon. Just prior to tightening, you also will see a suggestion of Buying Paper and Chemical stocks (IP,DOW,DD) selling medicinge and supermarket stocks (PG,KMB,K,MRK,PFE,BUD) and as they raise them smokestack stocks (CAT,DD,IR,MMM).  A less specific business cycle that can be applied to either a rising dollar situation or falling dollar situation suggests that buying technology prior to rates rising, followed by
(Weak dollar):Industrials then Services and Capital Goods.
(Strong Dollar):Services, Capital Goods, Industrials, Basic Materials Energy and then Gold

I believe the dollar is weak now, but that it will be rising That puts us in an interesting scenario, but I would go with Technology,paper+chemical,selling medicine and supermarket stocks and put smokestack stocks on my watchlist too.
2)Seasonal analysis: Seasonal analysis says that Energy will offer a pop into mid June offering a selling point, while technology will offer a good bottom in mid June prior to a very nice run up into a July spike. Healthcare provides an excellent trade from early until Late June/early July. Since technology offers the best timing
3)Technology is cheap and offers great growth. Financials are good too.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s_peeu.html
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/03/12/chart-o-the-day-pe-ratio-by-sector/
http://www.wikiwealth.com/company:technology
healthcare actually offers reasonable value
http://www.wikiwealth.com/company:healthcare

4)Technology seems to be the best match
5)The following technology stocks matched my qualifications
ATVI UMC CA INTC KLAC IBM RDA EBIX MANT ASX SIMO CSCO CSGS AMX INFY SPRD JBL PWRD SFUN CYOU
see charts.
6)Only a Few of these were available on the seasonal charts.
intc
ibm
csco
inty
jbl
7)Identifying opportunities This requires an in depth analysis of all of the variables now that we have it narrowed down.
fundamental
http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:intc 14.4% long term buy
http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:ibm 0.8% long term buy
http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:CSCO 42.2% long term buy
http://www.wikiwealth.com/research:JBL (-17%)
inty no data

Now we are left with 3
CSCO,INTC,IBM
Seasonal
All work but know what you are dealing with:
INTC is tricky as it offers a shakeout to retest it's low and takes until late June to get going but should move strongly.
CSCO shows seasonally a sideways upwards grind, no real great powerful move until October
Wait for July in IBM.