Tuesday, July 2, 2013

How To create your own Seasonal Charts For Any Stock

You may have noticed the site referenced in the past two articles here and here "equityclock.com" has great charts giving you "seasonal" data. I sometimes don't always find what I am looking for on that site with regards to seasonal data, or want more precise knowledge of what the gain expected from say the first of July to the last of August" would be.
Creating your own seasonal charts is surprisingly easy.
1)Go over to yahoo finance and enter in your ticker from which you want seasonal charts (or lookup an index).
2)click on historical prices (Set date if you want a different date range).

3) Then scroll to the bottom and click "export  to spreadsheet"

Now when it opens excel this is what I do
1)Sort by date
2)delete all columns but date and adjusted close.
3)Copy and paste to approximately match up the dates (you could also create an average of the past 5 days if you want to smooth out the data)
4)delete all the date columns but the first one.
5)Average the data across every date for one of the rows and double click to fill all of the rows down the entire column
6)Copy and paste the amounts as a value and delete the rest of the data so you only have the "average adjusted price" and the date".
7) highlight the data and go to insert... line(graphs).
8)optional:adjust the dates so that the year's are the same and so that it starts in January and is ordered accordingly

Final result of the Emerging Market ETF (EEM) and it's seasonal data over 10 years of data from 04/15-2003- 07/2/2013
I like using the price amounts. Now you can see that if you bought on the first of August and sold in the end of December... you would have made about 10% from 2003-2013. O fcourse that does not mean that you will this time or even at all going forward, but it at least gives you evidence that there is a seasonal cycle and if true when the best times to capitalize off of it are. I tend to believe the longer term trends and tops and bottoms rather than the brief spikes up and down will carry weight.


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